In the Spotlight: Jari Vähänen. Between Responsibility, Markets and Reality

A long-time gambling executive, strategist and consultant, Vähänen has worked inside monopoly structures, competitive markets and regulatory processes while also carrying first-hand experience as a player. That combination gives him a perspective that is unusually broad and often uncomfortable.

“I’ve been an active player, a casual player, and I still play,” he says. “But I’ve also led business operations for years and worked with governments, operators, media and sports organisations. You learn to see the same system from very different sides.”

That multi-perspective view shapes how he reads Finland’s gambling reform, not as an abstract policy exercise but as a live system whose incentives will determine whether it works or quietly fails.

The Hardest Role to Accept: Politics

Of all the roles Vähänen has occupied, the most difficult one to internalise has not been commercial or operational. It has been political.

“I’m fundamentally business-driven,” he says. “I believe that if you listen to customers and build products that are good for them, responsibility should be part of that, not something that stands in opposition to it.”

What he has struggled with is the persistent framing of responsibility and business as mutually exclusive.

“To me, responsibility is the framework,” he explains. “It’s the table. Within that table, business should be allowed to operate. But too often they’re treated as two separate things, as if business itself were inherently dangerous.”

That conceptual divide, he argues, sits at the heart of many regulatory missteps.

A Business Unlike Any Other

Asked for the most important lesson the gambling industry has taught him, Vähänen resists simplification.

“This isn’t normal business as usual,” he says. “There are real harms associated with gambling. That’s a fact.”

In that sense, he compares gambling to alcohol or tobacco, legitimate industries that nonetheless require restrictions. The mistake, in his view, is assuming that heavier restrictions automatically lead to better outcomes.

“Poorly designed regulation doesn’t reduce harm,” he says. “It just moves activity elsewhere.”

From Vertical Silos to Converged Platforms

Vähänen has witnessed the industry’s structural transformation from the inside.

“When I started, different gambling verticals were often handled by entirely different entities,” he recalls. “Horse betting here, sports betting there, lotteries somewhere else.”

Digitalisation collapsed those silos. Operators now offer broad portfolios, while lotteries, often the least risky products, remain protected by monopoly structures.

“The irony is obvious,” he notes. “The most harmless products stay monopolised, while more complex ones are opened up.”

Alongside digitalisation came consolidation. Not only among operators, but across the ecosystem, as media companies and new intermediaries moved closer to the core of gambling distribution.

At the same time, the Finnish consumer environment changed fundamentally.

“We moved from a world where customers physically came to buy a product,” he says, “to a fully digital environment where competition is constant and global.”

Finland’s New Gambling Act: Who Does It Really Serve?

If political niceties are stripped away, Vähänen’s assessment of Finland’s new Gambling Act is pragmatic.

“For large operators, it’s reasonably good,” he says. “They have the capital, the brand power and the marketing resources to adapt.”

For smaller and mid-sized operators, the picture is far less favourable.

“If you don’t already have Finnish customers, and you can’t compete in marketing, I honestly don’t see how you’re expected to succeed,” he says.

Restrictions on marketing tools, combined with limited brand visibility, risk turning the licensed market into a space primarily accessible to incumbents and large international players.

The Untouchable Clause: Lottery Exclusivity

If there is one part of the legislation that Vähänen believes deserves far more scrutiny, it is the decision to retain exclusive rights over lottery products.

From a legal perspective, he finds the justification weak.

“EU law allows exclusivity if it prevents harm or crime,” he explains. “But lotteries are among the least harmful products. They’re not linked to organised crime or money laundering in any meaningful way.”

In his view, the real reason is fiscal.

“Lottery has been an exceptionally good revenue source for the state,” he says. “That’s the uncomfortable truth.”

He doubts the exclusivity will be challenged, not because it is robust, but because history suggests few operators are willing to fight that battle.

Free Market or Regulated Oligopoly?

Is Finland moving toward a free market? Only partially.

While the system is no longer a monopoly, Vähänen sees strong signs of a regulated oligopoly forming, shaped by scale, capital and existing customer bases.

“Economies of scale matter enormously in gambling,” he says. “In the long run, size wins.”

Winners, Losers and Structural Advantage

When asked to name likely winners, Vähänen is clear.

Veikkaus remains his top candidate to dominate the market well into the next decade, even within the licensed segment.

“I’d still place Veikkaus as the largest operator between 2027 and 2030,” he says. “That shouldn’t surprise anyone.”

He argues that Veikkaus enters the new system with multiple advantages: institutional knowledge, regulatory familiarity, deep resources and a massive registered customer base.

Importantly, he rejects the idea that Veikkaus’ recent decline reflects incompetence.

“Regulation has constrained them heavily,” he says. “Now that conditions begin to level out, they may prove far stronger than many expect.”

By contrast, the most likely losers are smaller operators, particularly those without an existing Finnish customer base.

Market Concentration: The Numbers Behind the Narrative

Forced to quantify his expectations, Vähänen estimates that Veikkaus could stabilise at around 25 to 30 percent market share. The top three operators combined may reach roughly 60 percent, while the top ten could control the vast majority of the market.

In terms of scale, he expects approximately 40 to 50 operators and around 70 brands, driven by multi-brand strategies.

Consumer behaviour complicates the picture. Casino players are rarely loyal. Brand rotation is frequent, and many operators respond by launching new brands and internally recycling customers. This strategy may become harder under Finland’s tighter rules, especially because of the bans on welcome bonuses and affiliate marketing.

PR, Perception and the Quiet Battle for Legitimacy

Has PR been underestimated as a strategic tool? Until now, Vähänen believes Finland has not truly had a competitive communications environment.

“But that will change,” he says.

In the new market, operators that build familiarity early through licensing stories, local leadership, compliance narratives and earned media may gain an edge before paid marketing even begins.

“The goal isn’t to advertise gambling,” he explains. “It’s to make the company name familiar and credible.”

Still, he cautions against overestimating perception alone.

“Most market share won’t be decided before the first bet is placed,” he says. “Execution still matters more.”

If One Clause Could Be Changed

If Vähänen could alter a single element of the new law, his choice would be controversial. He would allow affiliate marketing.

He is no defender of traditional revenue-share models tied to player losses. But he sees the blanket ban as strategically naïve.

“Affiliates don’t disappear,” he says. “They move. And if licensed operators can’t work with them, black market operators will.”

His preferred solution would have been more precise regulation that targeted influencer-style promotion explicitly, rather than eliminating the entire affiliate category due to a lack of information.

2030: A Larger Market, a Second Reform

Looking ahead, Vähänen expects Finland’s gambling market to grow modestly, perhaps by 10 to 15 percent, and to enter a second phase of regulatory reform once real data emerges.

But his central concern remains unchanged.

“If we don’t understand that channelisation is essential for responsible gambling, we’ll fail,” he says.

Without effective tools to limit offshore play, stricter rules risk pushing players, including problem gamblers, outside the regulated system entirely.

The Biggest Misconception About Finland

If there is one mistake foreign operators are likely to make, Vähänen believes it is underestimating Veikkaus.

“People assume a monopoly operator will be slow and weak,” he says. “That assumption may prove very expensive.

Another possible misconception is to assume that the Finnish market is similar to Sweden or Denmark. However, Finnish customers' spending habits differ from those in other Nordic countries.

Finnish Gaming Experts – Signature Question

What decides the winners before 1 July 2027?

In Vähänen’s view, the answer is simple.

“It won’t be decided before then,” he says.

The real battle will unfold in the first months after launch, when customer migration accelerates and strategies are tested in reality.

Veikkaus may try to win earlier by reshaping its image and reclaiming high-value customers. But the final outcome, he believes, will only become clear once the market is truly live.

Jari Vähänen from Finnish Gambling Consultants is a long-time gambling industry strategist with extensive experience across lottery, betting and digital gambling businesses. Having held senior executive roles within one of the world’s leading lotteries, he operates at the intersection of business strategy, regulation and market structure. Known for his macro-level perspective, Vähänen combines deep expertise in sports and horse betting with hands-on experience in strategic planning, business development and execution, making him a sought-after interpreter of Finland’s evolving gambling market.