In the Spotlight: Antti Koivula. Between Law, Probability and Power

Few people in the Nordic gambling industry embody its contradictions as clearly as Antti Koivula.

A lawyer by training, a compliance executive by profession, and a former professional sports bettor by experience, Koivula operates at the intersection of regulation, risk and reality. While many in the industry speak either the language of law or the logic of betting, he speaks both fluently. That dual perspective shapes his unusually pragmatic view of Finland’s gambling reform.

“Professional betting teaches you one thing above all else,” Koivula says. “You never operate with complete information. Everything is probability, risk management and imperfect data. That mindset applies surprisingly well to law and regulation too.”

From Football Stadiums to Legal Frameworks

Koivula’s journey into professional betting began not in casinos but in football stadiums.

As a young football enthusiast, he worked as a data scout, attending matches and reporting events in real time for international data companies. The job paid modestly, but it opened a door into the mechanics of live betting, and eventually into a world where probability became a profession.

“What started as a side activity slowly became something more serious,” he recalls. “The stakes grew, the profits grew. But I never thought of it as a lifelong career. I always knew I needed something more stable.”

That awareness led him to law studies, driven by a fascination with structured systems.

“Law is about operating within a framework of rules that are flexible but not arbitrary,” he explains. “That structure appealed to me. It felt intellectually safe, but also strategically interesting.”

Today, Koivula sees his transition from betting to law not as a rupture but as a continuation.

“The shift was surprisingly natural,” he says. “Professional betting forces you to analyse fast, make decisions under uncertainty and stay pragmatic. Those skills translate directly into legal and compliance work.”

Two Worlds, One Logic

Contrary to what one might expect, Koivula does not see a conflict between the mindset of a lawyer and that of a professional bettor.

“The key is to distinguish between a recreational bettor and a professional one,” he explains. “A recreational bettor seeks excitement and risk. A professional bettor seeks neither. It’s purely about expected value, risk control and long term probability.”

In his view, professional betting and corporate decision-making share the same underlying logic.

“In both worlds, there are no absolute truths,” he says. “You operate with incomplete information, draw lines in grey areas and constantly reassess your assumptions.”

That perspective also shapes his critique of how lawmakers approach gambling.

Finland’s Gambling Reform. A Patchwork Compromise

Asked to assess the legal quality of Finland’s new Gambling Act, Koivula is candid.

“From a purely legal perspective, it would not receive a perfect score,” he says. “There are significant ambiguities. In some areas, industry specific realities have not been fully understood.”

He is careful not to dismiss the reform outright.

“The time constraints were real. Political realities were real. Perfect legislation is rare in practice,” he notes. “But the result is undeniably a compromise. A patchwork shaped by competing interests and lobbying.”

Nowhere is this more evident, he argues, than in marketing regulation.

“The law uses concepts like ‘moderate marketing’ without clearly defining what ‘moderate’ means,” Koivula explains. “Then it tries to clarify the concept by introducing equally vague terms like ‘particularly attention grabbing’ or ‘excessively frequent’. Instead of solving the problem, it multiplies it.”

For operators, this means uncertainty.

“Someone will inevitably become the test case,” he says. “And until precedents are established, companies will be operating in legal fog.”

Compliance. Cost or Competitive Advantage?

In many industries, compliance is seen as a burden. Koivula disagrees.

“I don’t see compliance and business objectives as inherently contradictory,” he says. “The challenge is understanding exactly where the line is drawn, and then making well-considered business decisions on the best information available.

In a market where products are increasingly similar, compliance may become a differentiator.

“In gambling, operators often offer the same games, the same content, the same technology,” he explains. “Trust, reliability and regulatory credibility can become real competitive advantages, especially in Finland, where consumer protection is culturally valued.”

However, he warns that many operators underestimate the depth of Finland’s regulatory expectations.

“Audit obligations, reporting requirements and documentation standards will surprise some companies,” he predicts. “Especially those without strong local expertise.”

The Professional Bettor’s Verdict. “A Catastrophe”

From the perspective of professional bettors, Koivula’s assessment of the reform is blunt.

“If you combine the new licensing system with Finland’s current tax interpretation, the situation is close to catastrophic for professional bettors,” he says.

The problem lies not only in legislation but in taxation.

“The tax authority has adopted an interpretation that treats professional betting as a hobby rather than a viable income generating activity,” he explains. “This leads to absurd situations where losses cannot be deducted, and people can be taxed on sums far exceeding their actual profits, or even their losses.”

For professional bettors, the implications are severe.

“In practice, it may become impossible to operate profitably in Finland,” Koivula says. “Many will be forced to move abroad or abandon the profession altogether.”

Legal Risks and Market Realities

Looking ahead to Finland’s newly liberalised gambling market, Koivula identifies the biggest risk for operators as misunderstanding local nuances.

“Companies assume that what works in Sweden or other Nordic markets will work in Finland,” he says. “That is a mistake.”

He argues that strong local legal expertise will be crucial.

“The biggest problems will arise not from intentional violations but from incorrect assumptions,” he explains. “Finland looks like just another Nordic market, but it isn’t.”

He also predicts that Finland will see a significant number of legal disputes in the early years of the new regime.

“Not necessarily as many as Sweden, but not far from it,” he says. “Much depends on how communicative and pragmatic the new regulator will be.”

Five Years Ahead. Regulation, Politics and Channelisation

Asked to forecast Finland’s gambling market five years from now, Koivula emphasises uncertainty.

“The future will be shaped less by the law itself and more by how it is interpreted,” he says. “Regulatory dialogue, or the lack of it, will determine whether conflicts are resolved through guidance or litigation.”

Two factors, in his view, will dominate the market’s trajectory. Marketing regulation and responsible gambling measures.

“These will directly affect channelisation. How much gambling actually takes place within the licensed system,” he explains. “If regulation becomes too restrictive, players will migrate to offshore operators. That would undermine both consumer protection and tax revenue.”

He is sceptical that regulation will become more flexible over time.

“Historically, regulation tends to tighten, not loosen,” he says.

Hypocrisy and Hard Truths

When asked what frustrates him most about the gambling industry, Koivula answers without hesitation.

“Hypocrisy,” he says.

He points to contradictions on all sides. Lawmakers influenced by lobbying. Operators who preach responsibility while prioritising growth. Organisations that claim to defend vulnerable players while ignoring structural problems.

“In Finland, we talk about protecting problem gamblers,” he says. “Yet tax policies and regulatory decisions may push them into even more precarious situations. That contradiction is difficult to ignore.”

Advice to Operators. No Copy Paste Finland

For companies preparing to enter Finland’s gambling market, Koivula’s advice is simple but uncompromising.

“Do not underestimate Finland,” he says. “Do not copy paste strategies from other markets. And above all, invest in local expertise, especially in marketing and compliance.”

If he had to name a single legal factor that will define Finland’s iGaming market before 2027, his answer is immediate.

“Marketing regulation,” he says. “And, more importantly, how it will be interpreted.”

Protecting Players or Protecting the System?

Does regulation ultimately protect players or the system?

Koivula’s answer resists simplification.

“Both, and neither,” he says. “The current framework is the result of compromises between competing interests. It wasn’t built from a holistic vision.”

In his view, Finland’s gambling reform is not a coherent strategy but a negotiated outcome.

“A mosaic of political goals, industry lobbying and societal concerns,” he says. “The question is whether that mosaic will function as a system, or fall apart under its own contradictions.”

Antti Koivula serves as Chief Compliance Officer at Hippos ATG

Text: Titti Myhrberg